D-Wave Unveils Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing Roadmap Targeting 100 Logical Qubits by 2032

D-Wave Quantum Inc. (NYSE: QBTS), (“D-Wave” or the “Company”), the only dual-platform quantum computing company providing both annealing and gate-model systems, software and services, announced a new gate-model roadmap designed to accelerate the development of commercial, fault-tolerant quantum computing. Targeting 100 logical qubits capable of successfully performing over one million operations by 2032, the roadmap combines D-Wave’s expertise in high-coherence dual-rail qubits and quantum error correction with its proven ability to engineer, scale and commercialise superconducting quantum systems.

“The industry has spent years talking about fault tolerance. We believe D-Wave has a highly differentiated and credible path to achieving it,” said Dr. Alan Baratz, CEO of D-Wave. “Our superconducting dual-rail architecture is a fundamentally different approach to fault-tolerant quantum computing that we expect will position D-Wave not only to compete, but also to redefine how quickly the technology becomes commercial.”

D-Wave believes the future of commercial gate-model quantum computing will be defined not by raw physical qubit counts alone, but by the ability to reliably execute large-scale computations for real-world applications. While much of the industry focuses on scaling physical qubits, D-Wave is pursuing a differentiated approach centred on reducing errors at the hardware level. Its dual-rail qubit architecture embeds error detection directly into the qubits, making errors detectable during computation at the single-qubit level. In contrast to many other gate-model hardware modalities that cannot detect qubit errors, D-Wave’s dual-rail qubits are designed to identify approximately 90% of errors as they occur to dramatically lower the number of physical qubits required to perform error correction. D-Wave has also demonstrated, with error detection, 99.9% two-qubit fidelities, meaning physical errors occur only about once in every 1,000 operations.

The roadmap, which will be shared in detail at D-Wave’s first-ever Investor Day today, outlines a progression of technical milestones designed to improve qubit fidelity, advance large-scale computations and support the development of commercially useful quantum applications. Key roadmap milestones include:

• 2026: Delivery of a 17-physical-qubit system that supports logical error rates 2 times lower than physical error rates
• 2027: Completion of a 49-physical-qubit system that can deliver an expected 20-fold error reduction factor over the physical error rate
• 2028: Completion of an 181-physical-qubit system that can deliver an expected 2,000-fold error reduction factor over the physical error rate, representing the scalable blueprint for fault-tolerant architectures
• 2030: Completion of a 10-logical-qubit system that can support the first fault-tolerant algorithms
• 2032: Completion of a 100-logical-qubit system capable of successfully performing more than one million operations that can support initial quantum chemistry and quantum AI applications

D-Wave’s roadmap is built on superconducting technology, which can run quantum error correction cycles 100 to 1000 times faster than neutral-atom or trapped-ion systems. In addition, the Company views Lambda as a key metric that should be used to measure progress toward fault-tolerant quantum computing. Lambda is a measure of how rapidly a quantum computer’s errors are reduced as more error-correction capability is added. Today, the broader quantum computing industry has demonstrated Lambda values around 2, meaning each increment in error correction reduces errors by about half. D-Wave’s roadmap is targeting a Lambda of 10, a major leap the Company expects will reduce errors far more quickly, by a factor of 10 for each increment in error correction, making it possible to achieve fault-tolerant quantum computing with significantly fewer physical qubits.

Combined with D-Wave’s proprietary on-chip cryogenic control technology, proven superconducting systems expertise and production-ready quantum cloud infrastructure, the Company believes its dual-rail gate-model roadmap presents a fast, efficient, and achievable path to commercial gate-model quantum computing. With more than 15 years of experience designing and building superconducting quantum computing systems, D-Wave has successfully delivered six generations of annealing quantum computers, culminating in its award-winning Advantage2™ system. As the only provider of annealing and gate-model technologies, D-Wave is uniquely positioned to participate in the full addressable quantum computing market.